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Play-by-play tactics: pace, shot zones, and IS vs JR
By Ubiond · All news
We looked at play-by-play from thousands of league matches (major nations, Season 72) and millions of field-goal attempts, with each side tagged by its box-score offense and defense. There are enough shots per tactic and position for the splits below to be statistically meaningful. This is a manager-facing summary of pace, shot shape, assists, rebounds, and who contests where.
The biggest shape swing in the sample: from Look Inside to Run & Gun you move about 17.3 percentage points of shots into Long (threes) and about 18.2 pp out of Short (rim). Look Inside sits at 13.6% Long / 50.0% Short; Run & Gun at 30.8% / 31.8%.
In short
- Motion / Run & Gun / Princeton sit near ~30% Long. Look Inside is almost half that.
- Run & Gun is the fastest offense here (~11.9s/poss). Push is close. Patient and Low Post are the slow ones (~14.6–14.7s).
- Push and Look Inside create more (AST/100 ~27–26). Isolations sit near ~20.
- Inside schemes crash the glass more. Who gets the rebound (PF/C vs guards) barely changes by tactic.
- BB still takes far fewer "Long" shots than the NBA takes threes. That helps explain why IS keeps mattering more than JR on a typical roster.
How we bucket shots
BB does not give x/y coordinates. We use the usual PBP event types:
- Short: layups, dunks, hooks, tip-ins, strong finishes
- Mid: top of key, wing/elbow twos, baseline J, putbacks, fall-aways
- Long: corner / wing / straight-on threes, very long, half-court
Free throws are out of the FG mix. Pace is mean game-clock length of timed possessions (same quarter, capped at 35s). Turnover % uses possessions ≈ FGA − OREB + TO (no FTA term).
Pace and shot shape
All ten mapped offenses are in the table (Base, Push, Patient, Look Inside, Low Post, Motion, Run & Gun, Princeton, Inside Isolation, Outside Isolation). Base sits in the middle on pace (~13.65s). Push is fast but still mid-heavy; Run & Gun is the one that really stretches Long.
| Offense | sec/poss | Short % | Mid % | Long % | TO % | AST/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RunAndGun | 11.89 | 31.8 | 37.4 | 30.8 | 11.6 | 24.4 |
| Push | 12.12 | 38.4 | 39.3 | 22.3 | 11.5 | 26.8 |
| Motion | 13.30 | 32.5 | 37.4 | 30.1 | 11.4 | 25.0 |
| Base | 13.65 | 37.4 | 38.3 | 24.2 | 11.9 | 23.6 |
| OutsideIsolation | 13.61 | 37.2 | 40.4 | 22.4 | 12.0 | 20.9 |
| InsideIsolation | 13.71 | 37.8 | 40.2 | 22.0 | 11.8 | 20.1 |
| LookInside | 13.83 | 50.0 | 36.5 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 26.2 |
| Princeton | 14.32 | 36.9 | 32.6 | 30.5 | 11.9 | 24.2 |
| Patient | 14.59 | 37.4 | 39.5 | 23.1 | 12.3 | 20.9 |
| LowPost | 14.72 | 48.7 | 36.0 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 24.5 |
AST/100 = assists per 100 estimated possessions. TO% = turnovers / possessions. sec/poss = mean timed possession length.
Assists by position
The PG still takes roughly 28–33% of assists in every scheme. Run & Gun spreads a bit more toward PF/C. Isolations are simply less collaborative, without a big pace payoff.
| Offense | AST/100 | PG % | SG % | SF % | PF % | C % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RunAndGun | 24.4 | 30.2 | 19.8 | 17.5 | 16.3 | 16.0 |
| Push | 26.8 | 32.6 | 20.3 | 18.4 | 14.6 | 14.1 |
| Motion | 25.0 | 31.1 | 19.9 | 18.7 | 15.3 | 15.0 |
| Base | 23.6 | 29.8 | 21.4 | 18.7 | 15.8 | 14.2 |
| OutsideIsolation | 20.9 | 27.9 | 21.1 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 16.9 |
| InsideIsolation | 20.1 | 28.8 | 20.5 | 19.2 | 15.3 | 16.2 |
| LookInside | 26.2 | 32.4 | 21.3 | 18.2 | 14.5 | 13.4 |
| Princeton | 24.2 | 31.1 | 21.0 | 19.1 | 15.2 | 13.4 |
| Patient | 20.9 | 30.9 | 20.6 | 18.4 | 15.4 | 14.5 |
| LowPost | 24.5 | 31.8 | 21.9 | 18.7 | 14.3 | 12.9 |
Offensive rebounds by offense
Look Inside / Low Post are around ~0.23 OREB per miss. Princeton and Base are lighter (~ 0.18). Bigs (PF+C) still take about ~60% of OREB no matter the tactic: the scheme changes how often you rebound more than who tips it in.
| Offense | OREB/miss | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RunAndGun | 0.192 | 11.0% | 11.0% | 16.2% | 29.6% | 31.1% |
| Push | 0.222 | 10.4% | 10.5% | 16.5% | 30.1% | 32.2% |
| Motion | 0.193 | 11.1% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| Base | 0.185 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 17.3% | 29.4% | 28.8% |
| OutsideIsolation | 0.210 | 11.2% | 11.1% | 16.6% | 30.2% | 30.7% |
| InsideIsolation | 0.203 | 11.4% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 29.0% | 30.5% |
| LookInside | 0.229 | 11.1% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 29.2% | 30.9% |
| Princeton | 0.182 | 10.6% | 11.2% | 17.5% | 30.6% | 29.6% |
| Patient | 0.210 | 11.4% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| LowPost | 0.230 | 11.0% | 10.6% | 16.2% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
Defensive rebounds by defense
Zones board a little more per side than Man-to-Man here (2-3 Zone ~38.2 DREB/side vs Man ~35.1). Position share stays on the bigs (~60% PF+C). Press steals more; the DREB mix by position barely moves.
| Defense | DREB/side | steal/side | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ManToMan | 35.1 | 6.8 | 11.4% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 29.1% | 30.2% |
| 23Zone | 38.2 | 6.8 | 10.1% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 29.6% | 32.2% |
| 32Zone | 37.6 | 5.8 | 12.9% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 28.1% | 30.6% |
| 131Zone | 35.3 | 6.4 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 17.1% | 28.3% | 29.8% |
| Press | 36.5 | 6.4 | 10.5% | 11.2% | 16.7% | 29.8% | 31.7% |
| InsideBoxAndOne | 37.2 | 5.9 | 13.1% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 27.9% | 30.9% |
| OutsideBoxAndOne | 37.6 | 5.9 | 12.4% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 25.6% | 31.5% |
Shot types and who shoots
League-wide the sample is still 37.6% Short / 38.0% Mid / 24.4% Long. Mid is very much alive in BB. Even the most perimeter offenses only get near ~31% Long.
Event types match the story: Look Inside loads STRONG/DUNK; Run & Gun and Motion push STRAIGHT_ON_THREE / WING_THREE into the top of the list.
| Matchup | Top types (A) | Top types (B) |
|---|---|---|
| LookInside vs RunAndGun | DRIVING_LAYUP 16.3% · STRONG 13.3% · DUNK 11.4% · TOPKEY 6.8% · WING 6.8% | DRIVING_LAYUP 14.9% · STRAIGHT_ON_THREE 9.9% · WING_THREE 8.9% · ELBOW 8.1% · TOPKEY 8.1% |
| LowPost vs Motion | DRIVING_LAYUP 15.4% · STRONG 12.6% · DUNK 11.2% · WING 6.7% · BASELINE_J 6.7% | DRIVING_LAYUP 14.8% · STRAIGHT_ON_THREE 9.7% · WING_THREE 8.7% · BASELINE_J 8.1% · TOPKEY 8.1% |
| Patient vs Push | DRIVING_LAYUP 13.8% · STRONG 8.3% · BASELINE_J 8.0% · WING 8.0% · TOPKEY 8.0% | DRIVING_LAYUP 14.2% · STRONG 8.7% · DUNK 8.4% · TOPKEY 8.1% · ELBOW 8.1% |
| Shooters LookInside · Short | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| 16.1% | 16.4% | 20.8% | 23.7% | 22.9% |
| Shooters RunAndGun · Long | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| 25.8% | 31.4% | 27.0% | 11.0% | 4.8% |
Shooter % inside that distance band (dominant box minutes). Short Look Inside is spread across SF/PF/C; Long Run & Gun is guard/wing heavy.
Defenses: who contests by distance
On the ~43% of FG where PBP names a defender, each distance row sums to ~100% across PG–C. Zones put Long contests on the guards (on 2-3, PG+SG are ~67% of Long tags) and keep the center on Short (~34% of Short tags). Man-to-Man is flatter on the arc.
| Defense | Distance | faced % | PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ManToMan | Short | 37.2 | 18.2 | 17.0 | 20.2 | 22.5 | 22.2 |
| Mid | 38.2 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 22.0 | 21.3 | 17.6 | |
| Long | 24.6 | 25.5 | 28.5 | 26.7 | 12.6 | 6.7 | |
| 23Zone | Short | 37.0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 22.0 | 25.7 | 34.3 |
| Mid | 38.5 | 19.4 | 18.9 | 20.8 | 24.6 | 16.3 | |
| Long | 24.5 | 34.5 | 33.0 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 2.7 | |
| 32Zone | Short | 38.0 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 30.7 | 33.5 |
| Mid | 37.9 | 15.6 | 15.7 | 17.2 | 25.1 | 26.5 | |
| Long | 24.1 | 31.6 | 28.4 | 29.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | |
| 131Zone | Short | 38.2 | 9.1 | 17.3 | 18.7 | 23.4 | 31.6 |
| Mid | 37.4 | 13.0 | 17.4 | 19.9 | 26.8 | 22.8 | |
| Long | 24.4 | 36.5 | 26.3 | 28.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | |
| Press | Short | 43.1 | 18.7 | 16.6 | 20.3 | 22.8 | 21.6 |
| Mid | 34.1 | 19.1 | 18.9 | 22.6 | 22.3 | 17.1 | |
| Long | 22.8 | 25.4 | 29.4 | 26.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | |
| InsideBoxAndOne | Short | 37.2 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 18.9 | 27.2 | 28.8 |
| Mid | 38.1 | 18.4 | 16.6 | 17.5 | 23.0 | 24.5 | |
| Long | 24.7 | 21.1 | 22.3 | 19.6 | 21.6 | 15.4 | |
| OutsideBoxAndOne | Short | 36.8 | 14.3 | 14.7 | 18.1 | 25.8 | 27.1 |
| Mid | 38.1 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 21.8 | 21.6 | |
| Long | 25.2 | 23.3 | 22.1 | 22.4 | 19.8 | 12.4 |
faced % = share of all FG against that defense in that band.
Why IS still beats JR (BB vs NBA)
NBA three-point attempt rate was about 39.5% of FGA in 2023–24 (NBA.com). In this BB sample, Long is only 24.4% of FG. Short+Mid still cover ~76% of attempts, and Mid alone is 38.0%.
That is why Inside Shot (IS) keeps coming up in salary and meta talk. A lot of possessions still end as rim finishes (driving layups, strong takes, dunks), where the engine cares about IS. Look Inside makes it extreme (~50% Short), but even Base/Push stay around 37–38% Short.
Jump Range (JR) is what you want when the offense lives on the arc. In the NBA that is most of the sport. In BB it is still a minority of attempts. Raising JR helps threes and some mid jumpers, but it cannot outvote a shot mix that stays mostly inside the Long band. Perimeter tactics do manufacture more threes. They do not turn BB into modern NBA spacing.
On a normal roster that gap is less about a weird salary formula and more about how the engine still feeds interior finishes. Until Long volume climbs toward NBA 3PAr, IS gets more on-ball chances per game than JR. Buy JR when you actually run Motion / Run & Gun / Princeton; do not expect it to replace IS as the default volume skill.